LEDinside forecast 2015 global high brightness LED market value reached $14 billion 520 million, annual growth of only 2%. Despite the use of LED number in the lighting demand driven by the continued to grow, but to enhance the efficiency of LED using a number of stars decrease, plus the decline in value of the pressure, therefore outlook for the next five years, LED industry compound annual growth rate will not prone to such as the growth rate of more than 10% in the past, industry growth will be slowing down.
From the supply side of LED to observe, because the past Chinese in local government financial subsidies, excessive investment in the LED industry to market supply and demand imbalance. Coupled with the future LED market is saturated, the short term is difficult to see the killer application to remaining capacity. In the short term supply and demand gap seems not easy to solve. So the LED manufacturers have sought the downsizing scale, re positioning, and even sold to seek living space.
The future of LED industry is still full of many uncertain factors, including policy to China, OSRAM and PHILPS group the sale will have a significant impact on the future of the LED industry changes.
LEDinside senior analyst Yu Bin: Retrospect and Prospect of Chinese LED packaging market China LED market in the global market, grow with each passing day. In 2015, affected by the economic environment, LED industry, the overall performance of the doldrums. Upstream of the LED chips, in 2015 the market size of 12 billion 700 million yuan, down 7% year-on-year, negative growth for the first time.
From the supply side, Taiwan manufacturers China, revenue fell 29%, a larger decline; China local manufacturers showed 4% slight growth, domestic LED chip rate rose to 73%. Although the market demand has improved, but because the price fell sharply, the overall size of the market decline. LED packaging field, in 2015 the market size of 55 billion 300 million yuan, year-on-year growth of 2%. From the supply side, China's domestic manufacturers present 7% growth, Taiwan manufacturers basically unchanged, international manufacturers declined 10%, Nichia and Cree and part of the South Korean manufacturers in China revenue showed larger decline.
Looking forward to 2016, China led chip production capacity will still continue to release, domestic rate is expected to further enhance; packaging field, as the technology gap continues to decrease, in the prevailing price in the market, the overall competitiveness of the international manufacturers will corresponding is weakened, and Chinese manufacturers will also continue to through mergers and acquisitions and other means, expand enterprise scale and take advantage of the scale.
LEDinside analyst Zhang Jiahong: Backlight Market Development in the past and the future
Backlight applications in the past five years has been LED industry an important engine of growth and technology incubation device, the output value in 2011 breaking three billion dollars, 2012 breaking US $4 billion, in 2013 peaked, the annual output value to 4.9 billion, see will exceed 5 billion mark, but from 2014, the engine stalled, for two consecutive years slipped down slide type, the value compared to 2015 2013 has almost evaporated half.
What happened? Low price straight down into the mainstream, LED brightness upgrade, the rapid price decline led to pile up in excess of requirement, become the three arrow, a LED backlight output next? Flip-Chip/CSP enhance penetration may be the fourth arrow, even for 4K / 8K TV, HDR, WCG and other high gauge demand growth may be relieved more or less decline, and eventually unable to backlight in the future to bring the dawn.
Fact is, the terminal application demand saturation, such no way backlight field hoping to wider access to the sea, and when the manufacturers planned to improve product structure, steering lighting or niche markets, thereby reducing operational risk, Challenger OLED has also been in the doorway watching, preparations from small size cut to size, apple 2018 the OLED panel of possibility also pass the hubbub, after 2016 backlight market, add more variables and challenges.
LEDinside Research Assistant Manager Lv Lishun: analysis of development trend of LED lighting market To expand the competition in the LED industry, manufacturers have turned to niche applications, while the vehicle is one of the few LED volume and price could maintain the blue ocean market. LEDinside deputy manager Lv Lishun said in the capital market analysis of today's meeting with the LED market estimated value of up to $1 billion 210 million this year car lighting, 2020 is expected to come to 2 billion 290 million dollars, compound annual growth rate of 8%.
In addition, in the LED package, low power chip output will gradually shrink, high power chip rapid growth, expected future automotive LED applications will actively into the high power market. And Lu Li Shun said, exterior lighting including directional lights, fog lights, far and near light and position lamps, volume growth in high power applications than annual price decline range, drive output year compound growth rate of more than 8%, and the permeability is lower than 15%, the future growth can be expected. The headlight module (and light) LED package output growth rate is the highest, compound annual growth rate of 11%.
This year the whole car lighting with LED number of 2 billion 790 million, expected by 2020 there will be a 3 billion 670 million. Which far and near light and position lamp LED package number of annual compound growth for more than 15%, headlight LED packaging module number of stars growth rate is highest, the annual compound growth rate of 23%.
